It makes perfect sense that the various motivations of that small portion of the country that still supports Nicolás Maduro’s regime would lead them to express rejection and fear at the possibility of a direct United States intervention to remove the group entrenched in Miraflores and in the military barracks. And it is entirely understandable that those identified as the heads of a narco-terrorist organization spend their days shouting against a threat that seems increasingly close on the horizon. Within that chorus of voices that tirelessly speak out and flood social media, there is a bit of everything—including characters like the one who tried to “prove” with an X poll that public opinion is against intervention, and who had to redo it four times in an attempt to obtain a result aligned with his interests. Despite presenting an apocalyptic scenario that exists only in his head—50,000 deaths, 20,000% inflation, the destruction of already destroyed basic services—he still failed. And not only because nobody takes him seriously, but because most Venezuelans have reached the point of understanding that an authoritarian regime that does not respect democratic mechanisms or human rights can only be removed by force.
Certainly, an X poll lacks methodological validity and is not the proper tool for reaching that conclusion. But the most recent study by the Center for Political Studies at Andrés Bello Catholic University, conducted with the pollster Delphos and presented on November 20, does have that foundation. “The survey shows that the desire for a change of government is practically unanimous across the Venezuelan political spectrum”, explained lawyer and analyst Benigno Alarcón. “Almost 8 out of 10 Venezuelans—77.1%—consider a change of government ‘necessary’ or ‘very necessary’”. And that includes what is usually referred to as “soft chavismo”. One of the study’s conclusions, Alarcón noted, is that the possibility of this change depends partly on internal action but also on the support and actions of the international community, especially the U.S. government.
So let’s ask the question plainly: Do Venezuelans support direct actions by that military force currently projecting power in the Caribbean? The answer is yes. Despite police intimidation and the natural fear produced by the regime’s repression, a group of professionals carried out a qualitative study focused on low-income sectors. For obvious security reasons, La Gran Aldea cannot identify them fully, but the results dismantle the narrative pushed by the regime and its partners in disinformation.
Jorge Lazo, a political scientist and professor currently at the University of Ottawa, shared his observations on this focus group work carried out in 14 Venezuelan states: “The study focuses on gathering opinions from Venezuelans regarding the U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean and the possibility that such deployment could lead to the eradication of the Cartel of the Suns. It also explores other topics such as negotiations between a sector of the opposition that has not supported María Corina Machado and the regime of Nicolás Maduro and Diosdado Cabello; why there have been no street demonstrations in this context; and what Venezuelans expect for the country’s political future”.
“There is a distinction between removing the regime’s leadership and what people understand as sovereignty,” Lazo explains. “The study shows that people do not associate a U.S. military intervention with an attack on or threat to Venezuela’s sovereignty. People do not perceive sovereignty as being at stake. What is at stake is the possibility of removing that leadership—a leadership associated with plundering the country’s resources and composed, in the perception of Venezuelans, of people labeled and perceived as killers”.
“Participants in the study have a clearly favorable opinion of a U.S. military action; they see it as necessary and legitimate, given that all other paths the country has attempted for years produced no results,” the political scientist emphasizes. “The perception is that the regime exhausted all options and that there is no alternative left; therefore, the military option—that military intervention—would be legitimate and necessary”.
One of the slides from the presentation, accessed by LGA, states this clearly: “Given the perception that internal options have reached their limit, hope is placed in the support of international organizations and key countries. The community expects an intervention that complements the efforts already made by the people”.
“The current situation has led people to believe that the regime imposes itself by force, which has generated disillusionment with traditional democratic processes and openness to other avenues of action”, the summary reads. Added to the failed negotiation attempts between representatives of the opposition and the Chavista government, the key element reinforcing this conviction is Nicolás Maduro’s refusal to acknowledge the results of the 2024 presidential election and the subsequent repression and persecution unleashed against the population.
The document illustrates this with participant quotes: “What came after was an outright theft of the people’s will.”“What we feel today—sadness, powerlessness, rage—is not weakness. It’s what happens when we gave everything, and they took it from us”.
The Real Enemy
Vladimiro Mujica’s perspective is particularly authoritative on this topic. A scientist, former director of the National Council for Scientific and Technological Research, and former member of the Presidential Commission for Higher Education Reform, Mujica brings years of experience inside and outside the country in civil society organizations working for democracy in Venezuela.
His assessment of Venezuelans’ positions regarding actions by the Trump administration is that there are three groups. “One group understands that the U.S. government’s strategy is bold and intelligent in identifying one of the most defining traits of the regime: its nature as a rogue state controlled by narco-terrorist mafias, and focusing on that. This dismantles the narrative that U.S. actions constitute aggression against Venezuela as a nation, and instead frames them as efforts to destroy the narco-state’s control over the country”.
“The second group of Venezuelans perceives U.S. action with great fear because they associate it with the possibility of a much more intense military operation that, although it might be justified, still generates fear. The third group consists of elements close to or financed by the regime, who insist it is an attack against the nation rather than against the narco-regime”.
Mujica argues that Venezuelans have much more clarity than is assumed regarding the distinction between imposing a government and restoring democracy and respect for the majority’s decision expressed in the 2024 vote. “I believe the three groups of Venezuelans I mentioned understand that the arguments from some sectors about an eventual regime change do not correspond to the fact that the Venezuelan people already decided this issue in last year’s presidential election. What the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans—and their legitimate leadership—demand now is respect for the popular will and the restoration of constitutional order”.
Based on the poll conducted in low-income sectors, Lazo adds: “According to the study’s data, Venezuelans aspire to take back their ability to make decisions and to lead the country’s direction. That is why they went to the polls last year, why they voted massively for change, and why the electoral results were what they were. Venezuelans want a democratic opening—a return of democracy to the country”.
“The biggest obstacle on that path is a regime that has declared war on its own people,” Mujica states. And it is not just his personal opinion. “For the study’s participants, the enemy of the country is not the United States or the Trump administration; the enemy is the regime,” Lazo explains. “It is an enemy—according to participants—‘that wants to eliminate us.’ It is an enemy that threatens the physical integrity of Venezuelans through different forms of repression and state terrorism. It is a regime that threatens and wages war against its own population”.
That, then, is the real war we are in. And for the majority, the option for ending it is clear. “The Venezuelan people, both inside the country and in the diaspora, are asking President Trump to lead the international effort to recover democracy and freedom in Venezuela”, Mujica notes. “And that this effort be carried out not only in alignment with U.S. interests, but with respect for and attention to Venezuela’s sovereignty and leadership”.